Unless some hedge fund making a "Hail Mary"-type investment, there's an indication in the futures market that someone or some group is making a huge bet on a serious short term movement in stock prices - as much as 25% - by the latter half of September.
As the linked article points out, these positions - theoretically synonymous with a terrorist group expecting to profit from an activity like 9/11 - have existed since June, indicating advanced planning.
The linked article from The Street.com is worth a read for another reason - I wasn't aware that someone took large put positions on UA and AA in advance of 9/11 (wow!).
In spite of the message implicit in these option positions, Homeland Security's terrorism threat level hasn't changed recently, which means either 1) the markets are better at indicating an iminent terror threat, or 2) DHS/FBI/CIA has already investigated the option holder, and are not concerned about any threat from related terrorists.
Let's hope it's just a crazy hedge fund looking for a huge, last-gasp return on their last few dollars......
UPDATE: rumor busted - nothing to fear here.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
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