Omakase

Thursday, August 30, 2007

WHOA! Bin Laden options indicate coming terrorism?

Unless some hedge fund making a "Hail Mary"-type investment, there's an indication in the futures market that someone or some group is making a huge bet on a serious short term movement in stock prices - as much as 25% - by the latter half of September.

As the linked article points out, these positions - theoretically synonymous with a terrorist group expecting to profit from an activity like 9/11 - have existed since June, indicating advanced planning.

The linked article from The Street.com is worth a read for another reason - I wasn't aware that someone took large put positions on UA and AA in advance of 9/11 (wow!).

In spite of the message implicit in these option positions, Homeland Security's terrorism threat level hasn't changed recently, which means either 1) the markets are better at indicating an iminent terror threat, or 2) DHS/FBI/CIA has already investigated the option holder, and are not concerned about any threat from related terrorists.

Let's hope it's just a crazy hedge fund looking for a huge, last-gasp return on their last few dollars......


UPDATE: rumor busted - nothing to fear here.

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With my new friends on the Great Wall of China

With my new friends on the Great Wall of China
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Uncommon Man's Creed

"I do not choose to be a common man. It is my right to be uncommon -- if I can. I seek opportunity -- not security. I do not wish to be a kept citizen, humbled and dulled by having the state look after me. I wish to take the calculated risk; to dream and to build, to fail and to succeed. I refuse to barter incentive for a dole, I prefer the challenges of life to the guaranteed existence; the thrill of fulfillment to the stale calm of utopia. I will not trade freedom for beneficence, nor my dignity for a handout. I will never cower before any master, nor bend to any threat. It is my heritage to stand erect, proud, and unafraid, to think and act for myself, to enjoy the benefit of my creations, and to face the world boldly and say, "this I have done." All this is what it means to be an American." -- Anonymous